The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am's final round is set to be a thrilling spectacle, with Mother Nature's forecast playing a pivotal role. As the players gear up for the fourth round, the question on everyone's mind is: who will emerge victorious in the face of the challenging weather conditions?
The early bird gets the worm, or in this case, the wind. Players who teed off earlier faced a different course than those who followed, with the former avoiding the sustained winds that reached 23 mph. This advantage was evident in the performance of 54-hole leader Akshay Bhatia, who started strong but struggled on the back nine, settling for a 4-under round. Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa, who played in calmer conditions, posted a 10-under 62, hitting all 18 greens in regulation.
The forecast for Round 4 is ominous, with winds projected to reach between 6 and 12 mph and a 25% chance of rain. By noon, the probability of precipitation rises to 35%, with sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph and gusts approaching 30 mph. These conditions could significantly impact the course's difficulty, with the late wave potentially playing over par.
Weather Applied Metrics technology highlights the impact of wind and temperature on Pebble Beach. The course has played slightly under par throughout the week, but the wind off the Pacific could change that. If conditions worsen, the course could trend closer to even par or potentially over par for the late wave. Round scoring markets at Pebble have been posted between 68.5 and 69.5 this week, with potential value on overs if the course plays closer to half a stroke over par.
There are also placement opportunities tied to the wave advantage. Golfers with earlier tee times will play in winds between 6 and 12 mph, while those later in the day will face sustained winds nearing 20 mph and gusts approaching 30 mph. This discrepancy often creates separation on the leaderboard as the day progresses.
Two statistical buckets stand out entering Sunday. The first is performance under extreme wind conditions. Over the last 36 rounds played in heavy wind, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, and Wyndham Clark have been the highest performers. Temperature is also expected to play a role, with conditions projected in the mid-50s.
Shane Lowry, who finished runner-up here last season, is a strong contender for the top 10 on Sunday. His game is suited for rounds that demand a lower apex and more control around the greens, and he has gained +1.63 strokes per round in extreme wind conditions. Lowry's performance in Round 3, where he gained +1.16 strokes on approach and +0.68 strokes putting, further cements his potential.
Collin Morikawa, on the other hand, is a strong contender to win, despite his struggles on the greens. He has gained more than +3.5 strokes in ball-striking this week and has impressed everywhere but on the greens. If he can remain near neutral on the greens, as he did in Round 3, his approach play gives him a realistic opportunity to win on Sunday.
Round 4 Three Ball: Russell Henley over Sami Valimaki and Tony Finau (-104) is a strong bet, as Henley ranks inside the top 20 in this field in Strokes Gained: Total in windy conditions over his last 36 rounds. While execution has varied this week, he has still gained 0.5 strokes total through three rounds and 1.05 strokes putting. Both Valimaki and Finau have historically struggled in heavy wind, making Henley's price an option for the three-ball market.
